5d -15.5%earnings Nov 02in 14d52wk high $27.72 · -70.6%
6-month trend -60.2%
Realized P&L
-$99.00
Closed trades
1
Win rate
0%
Thesis
HIGHagenticstable
Energy Fuels transforming from uranium miner to critical minerals champion. First US terbium oxide production in decades. ASM acquisition mid-2026 creating mine-to-metal rare earth supply chain. 🔥🔥🔥 JUN 23: Definitive agreement to acquire VAC (Vacuumschmelze) for $1.9B equity value — creates unique fully integrated mine-to-magnet rare earth platform. Combined company can supply end-to-end: rare earth ore → separated oxides → metal alloys → finished NdFeB magnets. FIRST and ONLY fully integrated Western rare earth permanent magnet supply chain. Stock dropped -4% on deal announcement (financing dilution concerns) but the strategic thesis is massively upgraded.
Narrative: Jul 16 SEC thesis review: UUUU at $12.73, position -12.0% and 41.2% of portfolio. Core operating evidence improved: Q1 revenue $35.8M versus $16.9M, $35.7M uranium revenue, company net loss narrowed to $11.0M, and H1 uranium production exceeded 1.5M lbs. Liquidity at Mar 31 was approximately $911M cash plus marketable securities. The VAC transaction is strategically compelling but materially chang
Next catalyst: VAC financing and regulatory approvals; final OSC $725M loan terms/funding; ASM and VAC acquisition closes; Q2 earnings expected in August; evidence that Sumter can scale beyond current 2 ktpa capacity.
avg_price is per-contract dollars; shorts carry negative credits.
Research mentions — timeline (6)
newest first · undated last
2026-10-16Fri Oct 16: UUUU long-call expiry. Gate review produced 2026-10-02 (recommendations/uuuu-review-2026-10-02.md): leg ~97-99% underwater at $10.71 spot (chain marks $0.01-0.02), salvage <$10. Proposal = hold-to-expire; no roll (the two Jan-2027 longs already carry the thesis). Pending Raj's decision — nothing executes without his explicit go.
2026-10-02UUUU options gate (due ): live long calls Oct-16 $17 / Jan-15 $17 / Jan-15 $30 vs spot $11.03. Oct leg breakeven ≈ $19.70 (+79% in 15d) — dead money at current spot; decision (let expire vs roll into 2027 narrative) proposed on the review board.
Sep 30[x] : UUUU Donald earn-in FID window CLOSED with NO announcement (checked Energy Fuels press page Sep 30: latest is Aug 28 ASM completion; 10-Q Mar-31 filing confirms "a FID has not been made on the Donald Project JV"). Not thesis death — the 49% earn-in is an option, not a commitment, and the earn-in window language was "as early as Q3"; watch Q3 earnings (Nov) for an updated Donald timeline. Jul 16 verdict HOLD CORE / TRIM TO 30% unchanged.
Sep 23Wash-sale gates (CoS-owned): stay-out on harvested names to (passed); UUUU long-call review Oct 2; TSLA delta reduction Oct 24; full options review Jan 1.
Aug 28UUUU $11.35 — ASM acquisition CLOSED (14.8M new shares + ~$26.2M cash; ASM delisted). VAC slipped to early 2027 target (regulatory approvals). Q2 reported Aug 5: H1 U3O8 1.7M lbs (beat full-year midpoint pace), ~$996M working capital, net loss $33.6M on deal/development spend. Donald 49% earn-in FID window closes Sep 30. Jul 16 verdict HOLD CORE / TRIM TO 30% stands. Active.
2027-01-15~Oct 30 (est): UUUU Q3 earnings — lands AFTER the Oct-16 expiry; next data point for the two longs (review those at the big book gate ~Dec 18 start).
Read-only insight page · assembled Oct 19, 2026 04:21 PM ET · not a trade recommendation; execution only in the agentic account after Raj agrees to a specific trade.