Raj✦Trading

agentic portfolio · Robinhood MCP
MAIN BOOK · READ-ONLY ANALYSIS · NO ORDERS

Scenario Lab · stress tests, not predictions

Modeled shocks to the real exposure base $952,267 = $383,599 equity + $568,668 net option delta + $22,700 crypto · as of 2026-10-20T11:30 (2h old)
Worst modeled shock: AI correction -30% at −$292,822 (−30.8%). The book's dominant fragility is single-cluster concentration: the AI six plus leveraged tails are 0.0% of equity (0.0% of exposure including option delta). Options hedge direction but share the same factor.
AI cluster concentration
$0core six equity
$0incl. leveraged tails
0%of equity book
0%of real exposure
core:
AI correction -30%
−$292,822−30.8% of real exposure
2002/2022-style: same complex -30%, levered tails -60% cumulative, option delta -30%. The full correlation event the TSLL/TQQQ tails amplify (TSLA|TSLL corr 0.998).
drivers:
AI correction -15%
−$146,459−15.4% of real exposure
AI-correlated equity $375,817 -15% plus extra decay on the 2x/3x sleeve ($9,012); net-long option delta $464,973 loses 15% of notional. ~66% of real exposure is AI-correlated.
drivers:
AMZN complex -25%
−$115,129−12.1% of real exposure
AMZN is 48.4% of real exposure (equity $37.2k + 1500 delta-shares $387.9k = $425,024). A -25% single-name drawdown hits both sleeves; GOOGL de-rates 10% in sympathy (corr 0.706). Cloud capex disappointment is the named driver.
drivers:
TSLA complex -30%
−$100,559−10.6% of real exposure
TSLA+TSLL+delta = $249,425 (27% of real). Shares -30%, TSLL -60% (2x), 200 delta-shares -30%. Delivery margin, robotaxi timeline slip are the named drivers.
drivers:
HOOD-specific -40%
−$47,899−5% of real exposure
HOOD $110,520 (12.6%) -40% alone. Idiosyncratic: brokerage multiple compression / crypto-fee mean reversion. Note: the agentic-trading thesis (Camillo) is also the downside if execution slips.
drivers:
Rates +100bp growth de-rate
−$33,234−3.5% of real exposure
High-beta/unprofitable sleeve $73,836 -10%; long-dated option book loses 5% of notional on discounting+multiple compression.
drivers:
Crypto drawdown -50%
−$12,284−1.3% of real exposure
Direct crypto $22.7k halves. HOOD de-rates with it but that is captured in scenario 5 - kept additive-here/direct-only for honesty.
drivers:

Correlations, vols and betas in Risk Lens · tax-lot detail in Tax. Scenario percentages are modeled shocks; dollar hits re-based to live exposure. Read-only — proposals only, executions wait for Raj.