Camillo playbook — Odds on Open debate (Sep 24, 2026) · studied Sep 26

• Transcript: /workspace/research/camillo-social-arb-transcript.md · takeaways: skills/research/chris-camillo-research/references/odds-on-open-debate-sep2026.md
• Method restated: world change -> economic consequence -> expectation gap -> size. Zero FA/TA; 95% world-watching; exits when the edge is gone, never on price.
• Alpha gap still open (2026): funds still refuse TikTok comments; decay driver = LLM ingestion (~6-mo copy window once one systematizes). Structural moat: edges too small for $20B funds.
• Risk-basket doctrine: decades-horizon basket, 50-70% leverage, ~70% expected max DD, concentration OK inside the basket — maps to main-vs-agentic split.
• Costello counters kept: 3x ETF theta drag (3x~2x, DCA ~1.85x) — reinforces defined-risk LEAP preference; AI sector now "too big to fail" — tail context for the concentrated AI book.
• Cases retold: Beacon Roofing (hail -> Google Trends, 4-wk edge), Hunger Games, Stranger Things (conversation volume ~3x prior hit), ELF/Jeffree Star, Vita Coco viral sound.

ARCHIVE — catalyst week Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026 (superseded by the coming-weeks calendar below)

• Wed Sep 30 AMC: MU fiscal Q4 earnings — options tape (Sep 28-29): implied move ±8% (~$87-108 range; 10-yr avg peak ±8.8%, 95th pct ±18.6%, realized > implied in 9 of last 16); consensus $50.95B revenue (+350% YoY) / EPS $31.63 (Visible Alpha); 11 of 12 analysts Buy, mean PT $1,545 (~50% up). Day-after reaction was a coin flip historically (6 up / 8 down over 14 qtrs). — confirmed by Micron IR (call 2:30pm PT). The board event of the week; see ping queue (HIGH, Sep 26). Pre-earnings tape (sweep Sep 28): confirmed guidance $50.0B ± $1.0B revenue; MU + SK Hynix 2026 HBM output both reported sold out — the question is pricing power/margin, not demand; Citi raised PT Sep 23; stock ~$1,082, crossed $500B market cap for the first time, up ~275% YTD — bar is high, a record print alone may not move it (sell-the-news asymmetry possible). Signals-file note: Street avg EPS ~$18.5 vs company guide $30-32 — dispersion wide. STATUS Sep 30 midday: results NOT yet out (print lands tonight after close; reaction session Oct 1); all search results are pre-print previews, one framing the risk as "guidance may look weak tomorrow" with the stock restless into the number. Sep 29 nuance: part of the July-August drawdown was Situational Awareness's $16B forced sale to Citadel (overhang reported absorbed; peers rebounded 27-41%) — tape is cleaner than the drawdown implied; Aschenbrenner leg of the guru convergence voided (see correction section).
• [x] Sep 30: UUUU Donald earn-in FID window CLOSED with NO announcement (checked Energy Fuels press page Sep 30: latest is Aug 28 ASM completion; 10-Q Mar-31 filing confirms "a FID has not been made on the Donald Project JV"). Not thesis death — the 49% earn-in is an option, not a commitment, and the earn-in window language was "as early as Q3"; watch Q3 earnings (Nov) for an updated Donald timeline. Jul 16 verdict HOLD CORE / TRIM TO 30% unchanged.
• Mon Oct 12: AMZN FTC — dispositive/Daubert motions noted (bench trial itself is Feb 9, 2027; corrected below).
• Wed Sep 30: Camillo macro-timing event — Iced Coffee Hour ECU ends with a hard-dated segment "Is This 2001 Again?" (his capex-supercycle 2000/2001 analog call, same day as MU's print). Content unreviewed from this pod; treat as an attention/consensus event, not a signal. Late Oct: AMZN Q3 (AWS growth >30% watch), GOOGL Q3 (dead-thesis revisit condition: FCF/cloud monetization proof), CRWV Q3 (exit verdict stands).
• ~Nov 5 (est): SHAZ Q3 earnings — first post-13D report.
• Wed Nov 19: GTA VI launch (TTWO) — sell-the-news event risk; research-only launch-window question for Raj.
• Wash-sale gates (CoS-owned): stay-out on harvested names to Sep 23 (passed); UUUU long-call review Oct 2; TSLA delta reduction Oct 24; full options review Jan 1.

Catalyst calendar — coming weeks (Oct 5 – Nov 2026) · refreshed Oct 3 (dates carried from recorded corpus, no new claims)

• Fri Oct 16: UUUU 2026-10-16 long-call expiry. Gate review produced 2026-10-02 (recommendations/uuuu-review-2026-10-02.md): leg ~97-99% underwater at $10.71 spot (chain marks $0.01-0.02), salvage <$10. Proposal = hold-to-expire; no roll (the two Jan-2027 longs already carry the thesis). Pending Raj's decision — nothing executes without his explicit go.
• Mon Oct 12: AMZN FTC — dispositive/Daubert motions noted (bench trial itself Feb 9, 2027). Legal-context watch only.
• Sat Oct 24: TSLA option net-long delta reduction gate (CoS-owned gate from the Aug 25 batch).
• Late Oct: AMZN Q3 earnings — watch AWS growth holds >30%, memory-cost impact on margins, FCF trajectory. Camillo's largest position; no thesis change expected absent evidence.
• ~Oct 30 (est): UUUU Q3 earnings — lands AFTER the Oct-16 expiry; next data point for the two 2027-01-15 longs (review those at the big book gate ~Dec 18 start).
• ~Nov 5 (est): SHAZ Q3 earnings — first post-13D report; Aschenbrenner is actively re-accumulating (22.5% via 13D amended Sep 17).
• ~Nov 14: Q3 13Fs — first TRUE read on Aschenbrenner's book post-fire-sale (the Aug 14 Q2 13F predates the Jul 30 Citadel sale; also watch Gerstner/Baker/Ackman rotations).
• Wed Nov 19: GTA VI launch (TTWO) — sell-the-news event risk; research-only launch-window question for Raj (board proposal has the scorecard).
• ~Dec 18 start: big book review gate · Jan 1, 2027: full options book review (AMZN/TSLL naked shorts handled first on any gap).

Guru Q2 2026 13Fs — all filed Aug 14, 2026 (ingested Sep 27; primary sources: SEC EDGAR + filings press)

• Altimeter (Gerstner, $9.8B): NVDA 19.2% top holding. NEW: Cerebras 16.2% ($1.60B), MU, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, LRCX ($171M), SpaceX ($303.5M). EXITED AVGO and AXON. Kept: CRWV 6.2%, ARM $582M, META $763M, TSM $683M, AMZN $578M, HOOD/SNOW core. Signal: rotation out of AXON/AVGO into compute-hardware picks-and-shovels. AVGO + AXON watchlist entries lost their initiating guru.
• Pershing Square (Ackman, $19.5B): EXITED GOOGL entirely (both share classes) — independently validates our Jun 23 GOOGL death call. AMZN -25.2% (still #4 at $2.04B; framed as capital allocation, mid-year update still models >20% AMZN earnings compounding). META +20.1% ($1.80B), MSFT +9.8% ($2.32B). NEW: Visa $1.12B, Mastercard $1.09B, S&P Global $1.06B, Netflix $934M.
• Atreides (Baker, $14.3B reported): largest position is now SpaceX at $4.67B (13F value — likely fund-level private-ish reporting quirk; treat scale as signal, not price evidence). Top PUBLIC holding: MU $821M (7.37% of book), trimmed slightly. 1-yr return +102%. SPCX scale is new — watch his public commentary for the neocloud/SpaceX convergence thesis.
• Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, EDGAR primary): Q2 13F largest positions: SANDK $5.67B (2.50M sh), MU $5.57B (4.83M sh, ~$1,154 avg), NBIS $1.23B (4.46M sh — held, trimmed from Q1), BE $1.90B common + call, TSM $1.27B, CRWV $745M (kept), APLD $469M, IREN $433M, RIOT $468M, CORE $666M, STM $584M. TE: trimmed 10M -> 4.9M shares ($46.5M) — POSITION KEPT, half trimmed (resolves the standing next_moves open item: neither full validation nor death). NEW: active-intent Schedule 13D filed Aug 28 on SharonAI Holdings (SHAZ) — 8.07M shares (~22.5% of 35.8M shares out), amended Sep 17 with a Form 4. Research flag added below.

Overnight signals (Sep 27-28 sweep)

• Anthropic IPO odds fell 96% -> 76% on Polymarket this month (Podcast Alpha Sep 27; All-In short Sep 27: Jason Calacanis "Dario seems to be sabotaging his own IPO"; Chamath frames Anthropic at $1T, not $2T). Relevance: (a) HOOD thesis has a minor IPO-pipeline leg (Anthropic/OpenAI retail demand) — a fumbled/delayed Anthropic IPO trims that leg but does not touch the wealth-transfer core; (b) temperature check on AI-valuation sentiment broadly. No dated catalyst; watch item, not a ping.
• Chris Wright (Energy Secretary, Podcast Alpha Sep 29): AI race hinges on a 178 GW hole in the US grid — China generates ~3x US electricity; "that gap, not chips, decides who wins." Power-scarcity thesis reinforcement (relevant background to the main book's power-adjacent exposure and the CVX/energy thesis track); no dated catalyst; index item.
• Camillo: quiet over the weekend (X feed inaccessible from this pod both days; searches surface only pre-Sep content). AMZN stance assumed unchanged pending new evidence.
• Gerstner/Ackman/Baker: no new posts or filings since the Aug 14 13Fs ingested Sep 27. Next scheduled catalysts: Q3 earnings season (AMZN late Oct).

CORRECTION + SYSTEMIC EVENT — Situational Awareness blowup (verified Sep 29, supersedes parts of the 13F block below)

• What happened (Reuters, FT via Disruption Banking, CNBC, BIS): July 2026 chip rout -> prime-broker margin calls on Situational Awareness's ~400%-leveraged AI-infra book (peak ~$45B; -67% in July alone, Aschenbrenner told investors it came "closer to permanent capital impairment than is acceptable"). Jul 30: sold ~$16B public-equity book to Citadel at a >10% discount. JPMorgan cut off lending (Sep 11); Goldman reportedly collected $200M+ in PB fees from the fund this year (FT); BIS cited SA as the textbook leverage-concentration case (Sep 14). Fund survived at ~$10B.
• 13F caveat: the Aug 14 Q2 13F ($20.24B reportable, values Jun 30) predates the Jul 30 fire sale — MU/Sandisk/NBIS/CRWV/TE etc. holdings shown there were SOLD to Citadel. Do not read those as current positions. Next true read on Aschenbrenner's book: Q3 13F (~Nov 14) + his option filings.
• Re-entry, verified vs our own EDGAR pulls: Sep 11 CNBC — fund active again via OPTIONS on AMD/CRWV/BE/SNDK (capped downside, no PB margin dependency). Our Aug 28 SharonAI Schedule 13D (8.07M sh, ~22.5%, amended Sep 17 w/ Form 4) is part of this post-collapse re-accumulation — the SHAZ flag below is now sharper: he is actively rebuilding, not passively parked. Jul 2 Form 4 on SHAZ (EDGAR FTS) predates the collapse.
• Portfolio lessons (no action, doctrine confirmation): (1) forced deleveraging manufactured part of the July-August AI drawdown; CRWV/Iron/SNDK rebounded 27-41% once Citadel absorbed the block — price damage from financing mechanics is not thesis death. (2) The highest-conviction AI-leverage operator converted to defined-risk options after nearly dying on margin — direct validation of Raj's defined-risk LEAP doctrine and Costello's leverage warnings from the Camillo debate transcript. (3) Correlation risk inside the AI-infra sleeve is real: his shorts did not hedge, everything fell together — diversification across AI-infra tickers is not risk reduction.
• Camillo thread (content, no trade change): Iced Coffee Hour "EMERGENCY UPLOAD" (~mid-Sep) — "40% Drawdown, and Leopold Margin Call", "The Capex Panic", "Manipulation, Citadel, and Who Really Broke Leopold": Camillo publicly dissects the blowup, keeps the capex-panic-is-wrong frame (consistent with his AMZN stance). Also recent: MFM "I made $80M. Now I'm putting 70% of my portfolio in ONE stock" (~2wks) and WOLF Financial "Why Smart Money Is Quietly Piling Into Amazon" (~1mo). One unverified-dating video title: "Chris Camillo: I Got Out of SpaceX. Here Is What I Bought Instead." — if recent, it matches our SPCX background-watch stance; needs a date check before treating as a current position change.

NEW RESEARCH FLAG — SHAZ (SharonAI Holdings, ~$55-60, ~$1.9-2.2B cap)

Aschenbrenner went from 13G (passive) to Schedule 13D active intent on SharonAI on Aug 28, amended Sep 17: 8.07M shares = ~22.5% of the company. SharonAI = Australian neocloud; NVIDIA strategic collaboration for a 72MW AI factory with up to 40,000 GB300 GPUs in Australia. Instrument warnings per doctrine (separate thesis from vehicle): pre-revenue ($3.1M LTM revenue vs ~$2B cap, roughly 600x sales), beta ~6.2, -44% in the last month after a $1.90 -> $178 run, institutional ownership ~50%, est. earnings ~Nov 5. The 13D is the signal; the stock is a lottery-shaped vehicle. Next step: deep-dive on request (13D purpose language, NVIDIA contract status, financing/dilution). Not proposed for any account.

AMZN (~$250) — AI Infrastructure Debt Raise Play ⭐ PRIORITY (Raj building leveraged long)2 OPEN

Status: Active · $249.67 (Sep 26) · -13.1% off 52wk high $287.20 · PT $313 (+25%)

Catalyst scorecard since June

• US debt raise → DONE Jul 9: $24.9B notes sold ($24.87B net, maturities to 2066, 4.6-6.25% coupons) — the exact shoe-drop Chris waited for. Earlier: C$14B CAD bonds (Jun 8-9), $17.5B Citi loan (Jun 10), $13B India AI commitment (Jun 26). Debt strategy executed piecemeal as predicted.
• Dip on debt raise → happened both times (CAD: $250→$240, absorbed; US: modest), then resolved upward.
• Q2 Earnings Jul 30 → BLOWOUT. AWS +37% YoY to $42.2B — fastest growth in 18 quarters, $169B annualized run rate, beat consensus 31%. AI and Chips (Trainium/Graviton) each >$25B run rates. AWS backlog $496B. Operating income $27.5B (+43%). Advertising +26% to $19.8B. Net income $62.6B (incl. one-offs: ~$600M tariff refunds + ~$600M energy-contract fair-value gain).
• Stock response → +9-10% after hours Jul 30, ran to $287.20 (52wk high), then pulled back with the September AI rout to ~$250.
• Camillo through it all → never wavered: quadruple-down (Jun), "Why Amazon Will DOUBLE" (Jun 27), VladTV interview Jul 30 calling it the biggest bet of his career (logistics, Trainium, ads, robotics/embodied AI), still 73.2% of his portfolio (tracker evidence Sep 15, High confidence). Waiting for debt-raise clarity before going "meaningfully deeper" — clarity has now arrived.
• Q3 earnings late Oct → watch AWS growth hold >30%, memory-cost impact on margins, FCF trajectory, backlog conversion
• FTC antitrust DATE CORRECTED: original Oct 13 2026 trial was moved by amended scheduling order (Jun 4, 2025) — bench trial Feb 9, 2027 (W.D. Wash. Dkt #492); nearest legal event now: dispositive/Daubert motions noted Oct 12, 2026; final pretrial conf Jan 25, 2027. Removes the Oct overhang the old line implied.
• Capex watch: raised to $220B (from $200B) on higher memory prices; TTM FCF negative (-$7.6B cash burn) — the cost of winning the buildout

Raj's leveraged-long posture — risk note (proposals only, no orders)

A leveraged long converts thesis noise into forced-decision risk. What actually breaks this thesis: (1) AWS growth decelerating toward Azure/Azure-peer levels (<30%) in Q3/Q4 prints; (2) capex→FCF spiral — burn widening while backlog conversion ($496B) stalls; (3) memory-price inflation compressing AWS margins (explicitly cited as capex driver); (4) FTC remedy headlines in Oct; (5) sector-wide AI multiple compression — the Sep rout took 13% off with zero company-specific news. Key levels (price evidence, not stops): $287.20 = 52wk high (post-earnings peak); $245-248 = post-earnings consolidation band that has held; $232.69 = June-rout low — a decisive close below it invalidates the "debt absorbed, higher lows" price structure and is the level a leveraged vehicle cannot ignore. Vehicle quality note per skill doctrine: separate company conviction from instrument quality — daily-reset leverage amplifies exactly the (c) type drawdown; defined-risk LEAP structures are the standing preference.

Chris's Exact Thesis (from transcript @ 31:40-34:08)

> *"I did quadruple down" on Amazon*
> *"Waiting for that shoe to drop… I think it's going to happen within days to weeks"*
> *"When it happens, I think the stock is going to drop and I think it will quickly recover"*
> *"If it's $60B the market's going to be chill. If it's $100B or $120B, Amazon could get hit again, which would be fine by me"*

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SG (~$8.24) — Sweetgreen (Dead Thesis Monitoring)2 OPEN

Status: Dead (monitoring) · $8.24 · Raj: 15 sh @ $7.75 (+6% watermark) · Decision point PASSED

Catalyst scorecard since June

• Q2 earnings Aug 6 → FIRED. Revenue $192.7M (+3.8%), SSS -6.2% as adjusted (within the -8 to -7 guide, improved from Q1's -12.8%; the wraps-led sequence -12.8→-8→-6.2 kept improving). But diluted loss/share widened to $0.22 from $0.20. Stock $8.24, -22.5% off 52wk high $10.63 — market read it as still-unprofitable grinding.
• Chris behavior → still holding as probability trade, featured in "Amazon, Robinhood & Sweetgreen: Here's Where We Stand" (Jun 18). Not conviction the company succeeds.
• Placer.ai monthly foot traffic → leading indicator only
• Cava earnings → if Cava slows, SG gets a bid

Outcome note: the sequential-improvement revival case did NOT convert into a re-rating. Thesis stays dead for us; the only remaining live angle is Chris's 30-35% probability bet on a 6-8x squeeze — not an investable thesis for the portfolio.

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Grokbot (xAI) — Raj-requested research flag (added 2026-10-01) · NOT a position

• What it is: xAI's always-on agent platform ("24/7 AI coworker", released late Aug 2026), going mainstream — My First Million tested it Sep 30 ("We tested Instinct, MUSE and Grokbot. They're ridiculous."); viral user reports of cross-market stock screens (30 picks across 6 markets in one run).
• Portfolio tie-in: demand engine behind the HOOD agentic-trading thesis — Robinhood ships a public trading MCP; Camillo/Amit streams (Jul 15 influencer stream; "AI will be Bigger for Robinhood Than Anyone Thinks") demo the agent-broker stack end to end.
• Investable surface: HOOD (agentic access layer) + NVDA (compute) — xAI itself is private. Watch: Robinhood agentic-adoption metrics, xAI agent API pricing, any broker-agent rails announcements.
• Status: narrative monitor only. No entry, no sizing, no catalyst date yet.

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TTWO ($207.50 as of 2026-10-01, -22% off high) — GTA VI Play: launch window OPEN, ~7 weeks to Nov 192 OPEN

Status: Research · $201.44 (-24.3% off $265.94 high) · Launch Nov 19, 2026 (~8 weeks)

Catalyst scorecard since June

• Pre-orders → OPENED late June and "exceptional" per Take-Two Q1 FY27 statement (Aug 7). FY27 net bookings guided ~$8B (+20%), Rockstar ~37% of revenue. Zelnick: date locked, no more delays, $8-8.2B FY27 revenue.
• Trailer 3 / marketing → marketing began late June; "Extended Look" trailer released (Netflix-exclusive 6-hour window Aug); no traditional Trailer 3 — Rockstar went the Extended-Look route.
• Chris's end-of-July deadline → PASSED. He posted "GTA 6: Boom or Bust?" Jul 9 with stock at $251. No confirmed entry published; entry zone he wanted ($212) never reprinted after the pre-order run.
• Stock round-trip → ran $212→$266 on pre-orders, now $201.44 — BELOW the old entry zone. Market is now pricing launch-execution risk, not pre-launch hype.
• Nov 19 launch → classic sell-the-news event risk; post-launch reviews/monetization (Shark Cards) is the next narrative
• Q2 FY27 earnings (Nov, post-launch)

Outcome note: the original Chris trade (pre-launch, decision by end of July) expired unentered. At $201 vs $251 in July the risk/reward has RESET, but this is now a different trade: event-driven into a known-date catalyst with sell-the-news asymmetry. Research only — Raj decides if any launch-window expression is wanted; none proposed here.

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SpaceX IPO (SPCX) — Background Only

• IPO Jun 12, $135, ticker SPCX → now $148.68 (-34.1% off $225.64 post-IPO high). Extreme valuation persisted ($100x sales at IPO), retail-heavy float.
• Camillo (Jun 14): NOT buying — "the time to buy was the last 6 years at $30B-$300B valuation… a trap where retail becomes exit liquidity." So far correct: stock below high, Susquehanna Neutral PT $170.
• Status: background watch. No thesis, no triggers beyond Starlink revenue disclosures.

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Signals-file radar (one-line status, Sep 26) — folded in from current_signals.json + live quotes

• UUUU $11.35 — ASM acquisition CLOSED Aug 28 (14.8M new shares + ~$26.2M cash; ASM delisted). VAC slipped to early 2027 target (regulatory approvals). Q2 reported Aug 5: H1 U3O8 1.7M lbs (beat full-year midpoint pace), ~$996M working capital, net loss $33.6M on deal/development spend. Donald 49% earn-in FID window closes Sep 30. Jul 16 verdict HOLD CORE / TRIM TO 30% stands. Active.
• ELF $99.51 — Rhode thesis played out (+23% day Jun 12, ran from $63 to ~$148 high); entry zone long closed, -32.7% off high now. Active/watch for pullback.
• MU $1082 — Baker DRAM/HBM bottleneck thesis confirmed by record FQ3; SK Hynix IPO overhang resolved Jul 10; -13.8% off $1,255 high. Active.
• HOOD $119.40 — wealth-transfer + agentic-trading thesis intact, Camillo holding; -22% off high. Active.
• META $751.66 — Ackman divergence played out (from $561 entry to $752); Meta Cloud launch Jul 1 validated capex monetization. Active.
• MSFT $516.17 — Azure/AI backlog thesis intact, near highs. Active.
• GOOGL $343.92 — DEAD (talent exodus Jun 22 + Q2 FCF -$5.9B with $49.6B equity raised). Revisit only on Q3 FCF/cloud monetization proof.
• CRWV $87.59 — EXIT verdict stood (Jul 16): leverage/concentration/insider-selling overwhelmed the $98.8B RPO; hard stop validated at $84 Jul 2. Dead for portfolio; -43% off high.
• TE ~$4.5 — Aschenbrenner Q2 13F RESOLVED via EDGAR: trimmed 10M -> 4.9M shares (~$46.5M), position KEPT — neither validation nor death. Q2 Aug 12: Clearway 641MW offtake (2nd deal after Treaty Oak 900MW), G2 Austin first cells slipped to Q1 2027, $120M converts = dilution continues, Fuzzy Panda still unresolved. Research-only posture unchanged; CoS next_moves 13F-verify item is now answered (this file).
• XIACY $16.52 — exited Jun 22, MiMo thesis alive but stock separated from it. Stale/decay-monitor.
• NBIS $237.33 — Aschenbrenner Q2 13F: held at 4.46M shares / $1.23B (trimmed from Q1's 12.4M-share 13G-reported stake basis — size change needs the Q1 13F cross-check before reading as a trim). Not thesis-tracked; radar flag stands.
• SHAZ ~$55-60 — NEW Sep 27: Aschenbrenner active 13D (8.07M sh, ~22.5%), amended Sep 17. Australian neocloud, NVIDIA 72MW/40k GB300 Australia. Pre-revenue, ~600x sales, beta 6.2. Research flag only — see section above.

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Sweep note — 2026-10-01 (CoS morning)

• UUUU options gate (due 2026-10-02): live long calls Oct-16 $17 / Jan-15 $17 / Jan-15 $30 vs spot $11.03. Oct leg breakeven ≈ $19.70 (+79% in 15d) — dead money at current spot; decision (let expire vs roll into 2027 narrative) proposed on the review board.
• Aug 25 DO NOW batch appears UNEXECUTED on broker truth (CRWV still held full; HOOD/NBIS/AMZN/VG at pre-trim size). Wash-sale stay-out expired 2026-09-23 → TLH intent still executable. Surfaced on the review board, not actioned.
• Camillo X feed: Nitter mirror ladder (nitter.net, xcancel, lightbrd, poast) BLOCKED from pod IP on 2026-10-01 — logged as fetch failure, not silence. Search fallback supplied today's signal.