Thesis
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Four billionaires (Coleman +49% Tiger Global, Tepper, Druckenmiller, Loeb) all piled into TSM in Q1 2026. TSM fabricates every major AI chip (NVIDIA Blackwell, Broadcom XPUs, AMD MI450) yet trades at 27x P/E vs NVIDIA's 19x P/S. 58% operating margins, 119% trailing return. The convergent thesis: own the monopoly behind the AI arms race at a multiple lower than the customers it serves.
Narrative: Jul 16 Q2 results independently corroborate the AI foundry bottleneck: TSMC reported NT$1,270.38B revenue (+36% YoY), NT$706.56B net income (+77% YoY), and NT$27.25 diluted EPS. Management raised 2026 capex to $60-64B from $52-56B and cited structural customer demand including emerging agentic AI. The Q2 result validates demand and supply-chain investment, but it is now public information; the nex
Next catalyst: Q3 demand/outlook and monthly revenue after the Jul 16 Q2 beat; advanced-packaging capacity; Taiwan geopolitical news flow; AI capex-cycle data.
Max entry: 0 · Entry limit: 0 · Timeframe: research
Research mentions — timeline (2)
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Aug 28Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, EDGAR primary): Q2 13F largest positions: SANDK $5.67B (2.50M sh), MU $5.57B (4.83M sh, ~$1,154 avg), NBIS $1.23B (4.46M sh — held, trimmed from Q1), BE $1.90B common + call, TSM $1.27B, CRWV $745M (kept), APLD $469M, IREN $433M, RIOT $468M, CORE $666M, STM $584M. TE: trimmed 10M -> 4.9M shares ($46.5M) — POSITION KEPT, half trimmed (resolves the standing next_moves open item: neither full validation nor death). NEW: active-intent Schedule 13D filed on SharonAI Holdings (SHAZ) — 8.07M shares (~22.5% of 35.8M shares out), amended Sep 17 with a Form 4. Research flag added below.
Altimeter (Gerstner, $9.8B): NVDA 19.2% top holding. NEW: Cerebras 16.2% ($1.60B), MU, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, LRCX ($171M), SpaceX ($303.5M). EXITED AVGO and AXON. Kept: CRWV 6.2%, ARM $582M, META $763M, TSM $683M, AMZN $578M, HOOD/SNOW core. Signal: rotation out of AXON/AVGO into compute-hardware picks-and-shovels. AVGO + AXON watchlist entries lost their initiating guru.
Read-only insight page · assembled Oct 19, 2026 04:21 PM ET · not a trade recommendation; execution only in the agentic account after Raj agrees to a specific trade.