Raj✦Trading

Sep 30Wed AMC: MU fiscal Q4 earnings — options tape (Sep 28-29): implied move ±8% (~$87-108 range; 10-yr avg peak ±8.8%, 95th pct ±18.6%, realized > implied in 9 of last 16); consensus $50.95B revenue (+350% YoY) / EPS $31.63 (Visible Alpha); 11 of 12 analysts Buy, mean PT $1,545 (~50% up). Day-after reaction was a coin flip historically (6 up / 8 down over 14 qtrs). — confirmed by Micron IR (call 2:30pm PT). The board event of the week; see ping queue (HIGH, Sep 26). Pre-earnings tape (sweep Sep 28): confirmed guidance $50.0B ± $1.0B revenue; MU + SK Hynix 2026 HBM output both reported sold out — the question is pricing power/margin, not demand; Citi raised PT Sep 23; stock ~$1,082, crossed $500B market cap for the first time, up ~275% YTD — bar is high, a record print alone may not move it (sell-the-news asymmetry possible). Signals-file note: Street avg EPS ~$18.5 vs company guide $30-32 — dispersion wide. STATUS Sep 30 midday: results NOT yet out (print lands tonight after close; reaction session Oct 1); all search results are pre-print previews, one framing the risk as "guidance may look weak tomorrow" with the stock restless into the number. Sep 29 nuance: part of the July-August drawdown was Situational Awareness's $16B forced sale to Citadel (overhang reported absorbed; peers rebounded 27-41%) — tape is cleaner than the drawdown implied; Aschenbrenner leg of the guru convergence voided (see correction section).

Sep 30Camillo macro-timing event — Iced Coffee Hour ECU ends with a hard-dated segment "Is This 2001 Again?" (his capex-supercycle 2000/2001 analog call, same day as MU's print). Content unreviewed from this pod; treat as an attention/consensus event, not a signal. Late Oct: AMZN Q3 (AWS growth >30% watch), GOOGL Q3 (dead-thesis revisit condition: FCF/cloud monetization proof), CRWV Q3 (exit verdict stands).

Aug 28Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner, EDGAR primary): Q2 13F largest positions: SANDK $5.67B (2.50M sh), MU $5.57B (4.83M sh, ~$1,154 avg), NBIS $1.23B (4.46M sh — held, trimmed from Q1), BE $1.90B common + call, TSM $1.27B, CRWV $745M (kept), APLD $469M, IREN $433M, RIOT $468M, CORE $666M, STM $584M. TE: trimmed 10M -> 4.9M shares ($46.5M) — POSITION KEPT, half trimmed (resolves the standing next_moves open item: neither full validation nor death). NEW: active-intent Schedule 13D filed on SharonAI Holdings (SHAZ) — 8.07M shares (~22.5% of 35.8M shares out), amended Sep 17 with a Form 4. Research flag added below.

Aug 1413F caveat: the Q2 13F ($20.24B reportable, values Jun 30) predates the Jul 30 fire sale — MU/Sandisk/NBIS/CRWV/TE etc. holdings shown there were SOLD to Citadel. Do not read those as current positions. Next true read on Aschenbrenner's book: Q3 13F (~Nov 14) + his option filings.

Jul 10MU $1082 — Baker DRAM/HBM bottleneck thesis confirmed by record FQ3; SK Hynix IPO overhang resolved ; -13.8% off $1,255 high. Active.

Altimeter (Gerstner, $9.8B): NVDA 19.2% top holding. NEW: Cerebras 16.2% ($1.60B), MU, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, LRCX ($171M), SpaceX ($303.5M). EXITED AVGO and AXON. Kept: CRWV 6.2%, ARM $582M, META $763M, TSM $683M, AMZN $578M, HOOD/SNOW core. Signal: rotation out of AXON/AVGO into compute-hardware picks-and-shovels. AVGO + AXON watchlist entries lost their initiating guru.

Atreides (Baker, $14.3B reported): largest position is now SpaceX at $4.67B (13F value — likely fund-level private-ish reporting quirk; treat scale as signal, not price evidence). Top PUBLIC holding: MU $821M (7.37% of book), trimmed slightly. 1-yr return +102%. SPCX scale is new — watch his public commentary for the neocloud/SpaceX convergence thesis.