Raj✦Trading

Sep 30Wed AMC: MU fiscal Q4 earnings — options tape (Sep 28-29): implied move ±8% (~$87-108 range; 10-yr avg peak ±8.8%, 95th pct ±18.6%, realized > implied in 9 of last 16); consensus $50.95B revenue (+350% YoY) / EPS $31.63 (Visible Alpha); 11 of 12 analysts Buy, mean PT $1,545 (~50% up). Day-after reaction was a coin flip historically (6 up / 8 down over 14 qtrs). — confirmed by Micron IR (call 2:30pm PT). The board event of the week; see ping queue (HIGH, Sep 26). Pre-earnings tape (sweep Sep 28): confirmed guidance $50.0B ± $1.0B revenue; MU + SK Hynix 2026 HBM output both reported sold out — the question is pricing power/margin, not demand; Citi raised PT Sep 23; stock ~$1,082, crossed $500B market cap for the first time, up ~275% YTD — bar is high, a record print alone may not move it (sell-the-news asymmetry possible). Signals-file note: Street avg EPS ~$18.5 vs company guide $30-32 — dispersion wide. STATUS Sep 30 midday: results NOT yet out (print lands tonight after close; reaction session Oct 1); all search results are pre-print previews, one framing the risk as "guidance may look weak tomorrow" with the stock restless into the number. Sep 29 nuance: part of the July-August drawdown was Situational Awareness's $16B forced sale to Citadel (overhang reported absorbed; peers rebounded 27-41%) — tape is cleaner than the drawdown implied; Aschenbrenner leg of the guru convergence voided (see correction section).