# NEXT MOVES — First Brief
**Generated:** 2026-08-30 · **Mode:** read-only recommendations. Raj pulls the trigger.
**Grounds:** social-arbitrage-intel + chris-camillo-research skills · /workspace/scripts/current_signals.json (as of Aug 13-15) · intel_monitor_state.json (last run Aug 30 22:09 UTC) · action_tracker.md (Aug 25 batch) · USER.md conviction.

| Ticker | Action | Why (source label) |
|---|---|---|
| TE | RESEARCH → decide | **social-arb:** Aschenbrenner Q2 13F was due Aug 14 and the signals file never recorded the outcome. His staying in validates the "electrons bottleneck" thesis; his exiting is a named narrative-death condition. Verify the 13F before any further TE decision. **book:** Aug 25 wash-sale batch locks adds in harvested names until Sep 23; TE is small and short-attack-flagged — the 13F verdict, not price, decides it. |
| NBIS | RESEARCH | **social-arb:** Aschenbrenner's book is NBIS-heavy ("electrons, not algorithms"); his Aug 14 13F is the second thing to check the same day as TE — add vs trim tells you whether the neocloud leg of the infra thesis is still his conviction. **conviction:** NBIS is in Raj's core mega-cap AI basket and was trimmed (not exited) Aug 25. |
| AMZN | HOLD · keep full LEAP structure | **social-arb:** Camillo ~70% in AMZN via leveraged options, his highest conviction ever; "Why Amazon Will DOUBLE" (Jun 27) and holding-steady messages still stand per signals file. **book:** only a small share trim was planned Aug 25 — profit-taking, not a thesis downgrade. No adds above the $248 entry ceiling; reassess on post-Q2 evidence. |
| MU | RESEARCH → ADD-READY | **social-arb:** Baker's bottleneck pivot — "DRAM/HBM is the bottleneck that matters," 30-40% of hyperscaler capex by 2027, "only 3 companies make it." Cross-sectional inefficiency: cheapest AI memory play vs triple-digit-P/E optical peers. **book:** not held; entry zone $850-875 per signals file. Watch for an AI-semi drawdown to enter. |
| HOOD | HOLD trimmed core · no re-add yet | **conviction:** largest core name, Camillo's largest holding, agentic-trading + wealth-transfer thesis still expanding per signals file. **book:** Aug 25 trim moved the book from ~32% concentration to a still-largest position; Gerstner's -30% Q1 trim vs Camillo's max conviction is a named divergence — let Q2 earnings and agentic-adoption metrics arbitrate before adding back. |

## Ops constraints carried from action_tracker.md (Aug 25 batch)
- Confirm the Aug 25 DO NOW items actually filled: CRWV full exit, TSLL losing-lot harvest, HOOD/NBIS/AMZN/VG trims.
- Wash-sale stay-out runs to **2026-09-23** for CRWV/TSLL (and the small-name list) — plan any re-entry on/after that date; CRWV re-entry only if the Ampere-commitment / NVIDIA-financing bull points from the Aug 13 All-In prove in contracts.
- Gate calendar: UUUU long-call review by **2026-10-02** (expiry 10-16) · TSLA option net-long delta reduction by **2026-10-24** · full options book review by **2027-01-01** (AMZN/TSLL naked shorts handled first on any gap).

*No share counts, lot IDs, order IDs, account numbers, or dollar sizes in this file by design. Quantities live only in action_tracker.md / broker truth.*