# Raj AI Research Brief — 2026-10-06 (Tue)

**Data status: FRESH + SESSION-VERIFIED.** Snapshot 2026-10-06T11:30:26Z (07:30 ET). Floor totals (floor §1): total $587,917 | equity $428,552 | options $137,214 | crypto $23,436 | cash -$1,285; month realized +$5,227.53 (16 fills; last fill 2026-10-02T20:00). **Price verification this run:** all floor quotes for TSLA.US, HOOD.US, AMZN.US, NBIS.US, CRWV.US, TTWO.US, SPY were re-derived from get_market_data (Yahoo, daily bars, as-of 2026-10-05 close) and match to the cent; every floor 5d % reproduces from the observed bars (see §2). **TSLL is NOT verified** — resolver reports a genuine shortlist (see §2); floor quote $10.21 unconfirmed. Deltas suppressed: prior-day brief is [cleared]-unreadable this session, so no day-over-day figures appear. Caveats: research_index.md [cleared] again (3rd run) — thesis rows are the Sep 26 board refresh (floor §6), itself cut mid-row on NBIS; snapshot tail (hist_5d, contract detail) not delivered past SPCX; option strikes not in floor.

## 1. Account snapshot

- Total **$587,917** (USD, 07:30 ET). Equity $428,552 | options $137,214 | crypto $23,436 | cash **-$1,285** (margin). Buying power $825,867 / unleveraged $206,467; pending deposits $0 (floor §1).
- **Two-center book (observed + derived):** TSLA.US = 26.9% of equity, $115,469 (floor §7; price verified §2). HOOD.US 1,000 sh × $114.11 (observed) = **$114,110** (derived). Together $229,579 = **53.6% of equity / 39.1% of total** (derived) — two largest bets within $1.4k of each other.
- **TSLA+TSLL complex: CONDITIONAL on the TSLL lock.** If TSLL = US NGM listing, 6,000 sh × floor $10.21 = $61,260 at 2x daily ≈ $122,520 delta → complex ≈ **$238k ≈ 55.5% of equity / 40.5% of total** (derived). TSLL price is NOT session-observed — this figure stands only once the TSLL identity + price are confirmed.
- Options = **24.3% of the equity+options book** ($137,214 vs $428,552, floor §7). No futures, no event contracts (snapshot portfolio fields).

## 2. Prices — floor quote vs observed (get_market_data, Yahoo, close of 2026-10-05 ET)

| Symbol | Floor quote | Observed 10/05 close | 5d % (floor) | 5d % from observed bars | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA.US | $378.73 | 378.73 | +7.3% | 352.84→378.73 = +7.3% | ✅ match |
| HOOD.US | $114.11 | 114.11 | -1.8% | 116.22→114.11 = -1.8% | ✅ match |
| AMZN.US | $251.40 | 251.40 | +1.9% | 246.67→251.40 = +1.9% | ✅ match |
| NBIS.US | $232.57 | 232.57 | -2.0% | 237.35→232.57 = -2.0% | ✅ match |
| CRWV.US | $87.39 | 87.39 | +1.7% | 85.93→87.39 = +1.7% | ✅ match |
| TTWO.US | $203.46 | 203.46 | +0.3% | 202.78→203.46 = +0.3% | ✅ match |
| SPY | 764.20 → 774.83 | 774.83 (10/05) | +1.4% | 764.20→774.83 = +1.4% | ✅ match |
| **TSLL** | **$10.21 (floor)** | **NOT FETCHED — ambiguous** | +14.5% (floor) | unverifiable | ⚠️ unlock needed |

TSLL candidates from the resolver (search_symbol "Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"): **TSLL** (Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF, NGM, US) vs **TSLL.MX** (same trust, MEX). Not silently chosen; complex delta in §1 is conditional. Board reference prices also verified as 09/25 closes: HOOD $119.40, AMZN $249.67, TTWO $201.44, CRWV $87.59.

Book notes: UI 19.7 sh; VG 1,204 sh (+$5.9k unrealized, derived qty×(last−avg)); NVDA 20 sh (+$2.7k derived); U 10-sh remnant (+15.0% 5d); SPCX 4-sh remnant (+14.6%); NEXT 799 sh + 5 short calls; MRVL 17.8 sh; RDDT/ORCL 1- and 4-sh remnants; GOOGL 0.33 sh ≈ $114 (noise); CBRS 0.0033 sh ≈ $0.61 (noise). Market tape: SPY +1.39% 5d = risk-on; the two largest centers diverged (TSLA +7.3% vs HOOD -1.8%), NBIS -2.0% negative on a +1.4% SPY tape.

## 3. Options book (floor §3 — unchanged vs prior runs; strikes not in floor)

- **Long-premium core:** AMZN 15L/12S net +$39,453 (exp 2027-01-15 / 2028-01-21); TTWO 2L +$7,198 (2028-01-21); NVDA 5L/5S +$5,876 (2027-01-15 / 2027-12-17); AVGO 2L/1S +$5,439 (2027-06-17); NU 2L/1S +$602 (2029-01-19).
- **Nearest expiry: UUUU 3L exp 2026-10-16 (+$774)** — 10 days out. Next: NBIS 2026-12-18; TSLA 2027-01-15 (1L/1S, +$142); then the Jan-27/Dec-27/28/29 cores.
- **Net-short-premium:** TSLL 4S (-$451), NBIS 1L/1S (-$425), NEXT 5S (-$200), VG 1S (-$120) — contract counts all covered by position size (TSLL 4 vs 6,000 sh … assuming the US listing).
- **HOOD has zero live contracts** — the #2 position (~$114.1k) runs unhedged into Q3 earnings (report date not in floor; typically late Oct).

## 4. Realized P&L (month window, floor §4)

Net **+$5,227.53** (16 fills; 12 rows shown). Last fill **2026-10-02T20:00** — nothing after Oct 2 in the floor. Winners: TSLA option buyback +$3,353.99 (Sep 24); DFDV +$2,135.70 (1,000 sh @ 5.785, Sep 24); AMZN buybacks +$300/+$335 (Sep 23); HOOD closed legs +$220 (Oct 1)/+$117 (Oct 2); IREN +$74 (Sep 23). Losers: TTWO trim -$564.56 (19 sh @ 208.27); INTU three-leg net **-$497.52** (derived: -57.52 -1,820.00 +1,380.00, Sep 21); AVGO row posts $0.00 on a 2,620 sell.

## 5. Wash-sale screen (floor §5)

- **⚠️ INTU** — Sep 21 same-day loss sells (-$57.52, -$1,820.00) + buy (+$1,380.00); if substantially identical, the -$1,877.52 INTU losses may be disallowed. Tax flag, not an opinion.
- Other 30d loss rows: TTWO -$564.56, (no symbol) -$43.75, **CRWV -$263.33 while the 300-sh position persists at $87.39 (observed)**.
- **Window gap:** visible fills span Sep 21–Oct 2 — ±30-day screen NOT fully covered; completeness unverified by construction.

## 6. Thesis deltas (floor §6; Sep 26 board refresh; board file [cleared] this run — 3rd)

| Ticker | Last (10/05 obs) | Board status | Anchor / catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN.US | $251.40 | **ACTIVE** | ref $249.67 (obs 09/25); PT $313 (+25%); LEAP stack loaded |
| TTWO.US | $203.46 | **RESEARCH** | ref $201.44 (obs 09/25); GTA6 launch Nov 19 | 
| HOOD.US | $114.11 | **ACTIVE** | radar ref $119.40 (obs 09/25); wealth-transfer + agentic thesis; Q3 late Oct |
| GOOGL | $346.47 | **DEAD** | talent exodus Jun 22 + Q2 FCF -$5.9B w/ $49.6B equity raise; revisit only on Q3 proof |
| CRWV.US | $87.39 | **EXIT** (Jul 16) | $98.8B RPO overwhelmed by leverage/concentration/insider selling; hard stop $84 validated Jul 2; -43% off high; **300 sh / $26.2k still held** |
| NBIS.US | $232.57 | **INCOMPLETE** | floor §6 cuts off mid-row ("…before reading as a"), 3rd run; Aschenbrenner Q2 13F 4.46M sh vs Q1 12.4M-share basis → Q1 13F cross-check pending |
| TSLA.US, TSLL, NVDA, UI, MRVL, AVGO, ORCL, U, BE, SFTBY, PTY, RDDT, TOST, TQQQ, SPCX, CBRS | — | **no board row** | incl. the largest position — TSLA complex untracked by the board |

## 7. Top 3 insights

1. **The two largest centers diverged across the verified 5d window** — TSLA.US +7.3% vs HOOD.US -1.8% (observed bars, §2), near-equal at $115,469 vs $114,110 (derived). Only TSLA has working upside this week; HOOD shows no live hedge in the options book (§3).
2. **NBIS.US: bear case compounds, board row still unread (3rd run).** -2.0% 5d to $232.57 (observed) — +186% over the $81.19 average cost (derived). Floor's own 13F note flags the Aschenbrenner Q2-file question; the single short call caps only a sliver of 100 sh. Not clean.
3. **CRWV.US: 3-month-old EXIT still carrying $26.2k, on the 30d loss list.** -$263.33 realized sits on the wash screen while 300 sh persist at $87.39 (observed); P&L window covers only Sep 21–Oct 2, so the screen is incomplete by construction. Dead on the board, live in the book.

## 8. Proposals (research-only; executable only in agentic account 489337709, only after Raj explicitly agrees)

Nothing below appears in the floor's order/P&L window (last fill Oct 2) — all new this run:

- **P1 — CRWV.US: complete the standing EXIT.** Sell 300 sh (~$26.2k at $87.39 observed). Verdict 3 months old; -43% off high; stop $84 validated Jul 2. Breaks on credible RPO→revenue proof (~Nov print).
- **P2 — HOOD.US: define downside on the #2 position before Q3.** ~$114.1k unhedged, zero live options. Collar: buy Jan-2027 put $90–95 + sell ≤10 covered calls $130–140 vs 1,000 sh, ~zero net debit — strikes to be confirmed against the live chain (not in floor). Capped upside ≈ +15–20%.
- **P3 — TTWO.US: weakness-only launch kicker.** GTA6 Nov 19 (~6 wks); existing 2× Jan-2028 LEAPs (+$7,198) already carry exposure. If adding: $230/$260 Dec-2026 call spread, small. Zone $195–202 (ref $201.44 obs 09/25; last $203.46). Breaks on launch slip or review backlash.
- Rejected: TSLA/TSLL adds (concentration deliberate — data, not advice); NBIS puts (evidence incomplete — wait for Q1-13F cross-check).

## 9. Watch list — next 5 sessions

- **TSLA.US $378.73 / TSLL (unlocked):** extension vs exhaustion (+7.3% 5d); Q3 delivery print NOT in floor.
- **HOOD.US $114.11:** reclaim $119.40 ref vs slide; Q3 late Oct; no hedge.
- **NBIS.US $232.57:** trim question open (Q1-13F cross-check); Dec 18 2026 expiry.
- **UUUU: 3 calls exp Oct 16 — 10 days** (+$774); decide/roll.
- **TTWO.US $203.46:** pre-launch cadence into Nov 19.
- **UI $609.29:** +8.9% 5d — continuation vs consolidation.
- **CRWV.US $87.39:** EXIT vs 300 sh; no re-entry while wash window open.
- **SPY 774.83:** +1.4% risk-on; options 24.3% of equity+options.

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**3-line summary:** (1) Account total $587,917 at 07:30 ET — every floor quote verified against observed bars (7/8 names; SPY +1.39% 5d), two centers near-equal at $115,469 TSLA vs $114,110 HOOD = 53.6% of equity, TSLA+TSLL complex ≈55.5% only once TSLL identity is locked. (2) Nothing executed since Oct 2: realized still +$5,227.53; CRWV EXIT holds 300 sh / $26.2k and sits on the 30d loss list; HOOD unhedged into Q3; UUUU 3 calls expire Oct 16. (3) Proposals carried, research-only until Raj agrees: P1 CRWV exit · P2 HOOD collar · P3 TTWO weakness-only spread — plus one identity question: confirm TSLL = US NGM listing so the complex delta can be verified.