# Raj AI Research Brief — 2026-10-05 (Mon)

**Data status: FRESH.** Snapshot generated 2026-10-05T11:30:13Z (07:30 ET), ~30 min before this brief. Floor totals: total $574,845 | equity $420,029 | options $132,332 | crypto $23,600 | cash -$1,115; month realized +$5,227.53. Caveats: research_index.md returned [cleared] this run — thesis rows below are the floor's §6, which itself cuts off mid-row on NBIS; snapshot.json tail (hist_5d, options contract detail) not delivered past the SPCX row. Anything not verifiable is marked as such.

## 1. Account snapshot

- Total $574,845 (USD, 07:30 ET): equity $420,029 (73.1%), options $132,332 (24.0% of the $552,361 equity+options book, per floor), crypto $23,600 (4.1%), cash -$1,115 (margin). Buying power $806,832 / unleveraged $201,708; pending deposits $0.
- **Two-center book (derived):** TSLA $112,978 (26.9% of equity, floor) and HOOD $112,740 (26.8%) are within $240 of each other — together 53.7% of equity / 39.3% of total.
- **Effective TSLA delta (derived):** TSLA $112,978 + TSLL 6000 sh × $9.80 = $58,800 at 2x daily ≈ $117,600 delta → complex ≈ $230,600 = 54.9% of equity, 40.1% of total. Largest single-name indirect exposure in the book; flagged as data, not advice.
- Options: 24.0% of the equity+options book; no live HOOD contracts (two short legs closed this month, +$337).

## 2. 5-session movers (marks 07:30 ET; window to Oct 2 close; SPY +0.5% 765.61→769.64 — no QQQ row in floor, closest read TQQQ +5.2%)

| Symbol | Last | 5d % | 5d $ impact (derived) | Thesis tag | One line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $370.59 | +3.7% | +$4.0k | no board row | into Q3 delivery-print window |
| TSLL | $9.80 | +7.1% | +$3.9k | no board row | 2x TSLA, tracks the move |
| HOOD | $112.74 | -3.2% | -$3.7k | ACTIVE | -22% off high; only major decliner |
| UI | $620.52 | +12.1% | +$1.3k | no board row | strongest large colonne move |
| MRVL | $272.29 | +8.1% | +$0.4k | no board row | custom-silicon/AI-networking name |
| CRWV | $89.62 | +5.3% | +$1.3k | EXIT (Jul 16) | dead verdict, still 300 sh |
| NBIS | $242.81 | +4.7% | +$1.1k | row INCOMPLETE | see §7 |
| ORCL | $142.30 | +7.3% | — | no board row | 4-sh remnant |
| U | $43.61 | +9.4% | — | no board row | 10-sh remnant |
| BE | $289.15 | +10.0% | — | no board row | 1-sh remnant |
| SPCX | $158.96 | +9.3% | — | no board row | 4-sh remnant |
| SFTBY | $20.58 | +7.1% | — | no board row | 10-sh remnant |
| TQQQ | $81.01 | +5.2% | — | no board row | 1-sh remnant |
| RDDT | $147.86 | +3.3% | — | no board row | 1-sh remnant |
| PTY | $11.04 | +2.5% | — | no board row | income CEF |
| CBRS | $166.43 | -15.4% | — | no board row | 0.0033-sh stub, $0.56 value — noise |
| TTWO | $202.73 | +0.2% | — | RESEARCH | GTA6 launch Nov 19 |
| GOOGL | $343.50 | +0.2% | — | DEAD | 0.33-sh residual |

Net: TSLA complex +$7.9k vs HOOD -$3.7k on the 5d — the two centers of gravity moved opposite ways.

## 3. Options book (live, by underlying)

- **Biggest long premium:** AMZN 15L/12S, net cost +$39,453 (exp Jan-27 / Jan-28) — the core LEAP structure; TTWO 2L +$7,198 (Jan-28); NVDA 5L/5S +$5,876; AVGO 2L/1S +$5,439 (Jun-27).
- **Nearest expiry:** UUUU 3L exp **Oct 16, 2026** (+$774). Clusters after: NBIS Dec 18 2026; AMZN/NVDA/TSLA Jan 15 2027; NVDA Dec 17 2027; TTWO/AMZN Jan 21 2028; NU Jan 19 2029.
- **Net-short-premium underlyings:** TSLL 4S (-$451), NEXT 5S (-$200), VG 1S (-$120), NBIS 1L/1S (-$425). Defined-risk check by share coverage (inferred from counts — contract strikes not in the floor): TSLL 4 contracts vs 6,000 sh held; NEXT 5 vs 796; VG 1 vs 1,204; NBIS 1 vs 100. Pairing looks covered on all four; verification needs contract-level detail not delivered this run.

## 4. Realized P&L — month

Net **+$5,227.53** (16 fills; 12 rows visible). Winners: TSLA option buyback +$3,353.99 (Sep 24); DFDV +$2,135.70 (1,000 sh @ $5.785); AMZN two buybacks +$300 / +$335 (Sep 23); HOOD closed short legs +$220 (Oct 1) / +$117 (Oct 2). Losers: INTU net -$497.52 (three same-day legs Sep 21), TTWO equity trim -$564.56 (19 sh @ $208.27). AVGO row posts $0.00 realized on a 2,620 sell. 4 fills not shown — the wash list holds 2 loss rows (CRWV -$263.33, no-symbol -$43.75) that sit outside the visible table, so they cannot be dated from the floor.

## 5. Wash-sale screen

- **Flagged: INTU** — Sep 21 same-day sells (-$57.52, -$1,820.00) plus a buy (+$1,380.00). If the buy-side call is substantially identical to the loss legs, the INTU losses (-$1,877.52 total) may be disallowed. Tax flag, not an opinion.
- **Window gap (stated per doctrine):** visible fills span Sep 21–Oct 2 only — the ±30-day screen is NOT fully covered, so losses from Sep 5–20 are undated from the floor and wash completeness is unverified, including how the CRWV -$263.33 loss relates to the 300 shares still held.

## 6. Thesis deltas (floor §6; board refreshed Sep 26)

| Ticker | Last | Board status | Anchor / catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $251.52 | **ACTIVE** | ref $249.67 (Sep 26); -13.1% off $287.20 high; PT $313 (+25%) — LEAP stack already loaded |
| TTWO | $202.73 | **RESEARCH** | ref $201.44; -24.3% off $265.94 high; GTA6 launch Nov 19, 2026 (~6.4 weeks from Oct 5) |
| HOOD | $112.74 | **ACTIVE** | radar ref $119.40; -22% off high; Camillo holding; wealth-transfer + agentic-trading thesis |
| GOOGL | $343.50 | **DEAD** | Q2 FCF -$5.9B + talent exodus; 0.33-sh residual only; revisit only on Q3 FCF/cloud proof |
| CRWV | $89.62 | **EXIT** (Jul 16) | hard stop $84 validated Jul 2; -43% off high; **300 sh / $26.9k still held** |
| NBIS | $242.81 | **INCOMPLETE** | floor row cuts off mid-sentence — status NOT retrieved; Aschenbrenner Q2 13F 4.46M sh / $1.23B vs Q1 12.4M-share basis → trim cross-check (Q1 13F) pending per floor |
| TSLA, TSLL, NVDA, MRVL, UI, AVGO, ORCL, U, BE, SFTBY, PTY, RDDT, TOST, TQQQ, SPCX, CBRS | — | **no board row delivered** | incl. the two largest positions (TSLA, TSLL complex) — largest concentration is untracked by the board |

## 7. Top 3 insights

1. **The book is now two $113k bets, and only one is tooled.** TSLA $112,978 and HOOD $112,740 = 53.7% of equity; with TSLL's 2x, effective TSLA delta ≈ 55% of equity (derived). HOOD — the #2 position — has zero LIVE options tooling after two short legs were closed this month (+$337), so the -3.2% five-day drift ran with no defined-risk mitigation in place. (Source: floor §2, §7; options book §3.)
2. **NBIS: +199% over cost with a possible smart-money trim in the tape.** $81.19 avg → $242.81 (+$16.2k, derived); the floor's own 13F note flags Aschenbrenner's Q2 13F at 4.46M sh vs the Q1 12.4M-share basis (cross-check pending) — run-up plus an apparent insider trim is the live bear case, and the single short call against 100 sh only caps a sliver. The board row itself is cut off, so NBIS status is unretrieved, not clean. (Source: floor §6.)
3. **CRWV: a 3-month-old EXIT verdict that was never executed.** Board says Dead-for-portfolio; 300 sh / $26.9k still held, +5.3% on the 5d; a CRWV loss sale (-$263.33) sits inside the 30-day window while the position persists, and the visible P&L window covers only ~Sep 21–Oct 2 — so this wash screen is incomplete by construction. (Source: floor §4, §5, §6.)

## 8. Proposals (research-only; executable only in agentic account 489337709 and only after Raj explicitly agrees)

- **P1 — CRWV: complete the standing EXIT.** Thesis: EXIT verdict (Jul 16), -43% off high, dead for portfolio. Vehicle: sell the 300 sh (~$26.9k) into the +5.3% 5d strength — equity, no structure needed. Entry zone: last $89.62. What breaks it: credible RPO→revenue conversion at the next print (~Nov). Catalyst: none — the verdict is three months old.
- **P2 — HOOD: define the downside on the #2 position.** Thesis: ACTIVE (wealth-transfer + agentic), but -22% off high, -3.2% 5d, $112.7k unhedged with no live options. Vehicle: collar — buy Jan-2027 put in the $90–95 zone + sell ≤10 covered calls $130–140 against the 1,000 sh, target ~zero net debit. Max entry zone: HOOD $112.74 area, pre-earnings IV. What breaks it: HOOD below put strike − debit at expiry (floor defined); upside capped ≈ +20% at call strike. Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (late Oct) — the collar puts a floor under the gap either way.
- **P3 — TTWO: optional launch-window kicker, only on weakness.** Thesis: RESEARCH, GTA6 launch Nov 19 (~6.4 weeks); existing 2× Jan-2028 LEAPs (+$7,198) already carry core exposure. Vehicle: if adding, a defined-risk $230/$260 Dec-2026 call spread, small size. Max entry zone: $195–202 (board ref $201.44). What breaks it: launch slip past Feb-2027 or first-week review backlash. Catalyst: Nov 19 launch + holiday attach rates.
- Considered and rejected as a proposal: TSLA/TSLL — concentration is deliberate; surfaced as data, not advice. No HOOD downside adds beyond P2 (no new equity delta wanted).

## 9. Watch list — next 5 sessions

- **TSLA $370.59 / TSLL $9.80:** delivery-print follow-through; watch ~$360 as the near support reference (no board level exists).
- **HOOD $112.74:** radar-ref $119.40 reclaim vs slide toward $110; Q3 earnings late Oct.
- **TTWO $202.73:** board ref $201.44; pre-launch marketing cadence as Nov 19 approaches.
- **UI $620.52:** +12.1% 5d extension — exhaustion vs continuation; no board anchor.
- **NBIS $242.81:** pending Q1-13F cross-check (floor-flagged); Dec 18 2026 option expiry.
- **UUUU:** 3 long contracts expire **Oct 16, 2026** — nearest book expiry, decide/roll before then.
- **SPY 769.64:** +0.5% 5d — flat tape underneath a hot Tech book.

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**3-line summary:** (1) The book is two $113k bets — TSLA (~$113k + TSLL 2x ≈ 55% effective delta) and HOOD ($112.7k, no live options) — 53.7% of equity between them, and the 5d split them ±$7.9k/-$3.7k. (2) NBIS is +199% over cost with a floor-flagged Aschenbrenner trim cross-check pending; CRWV's EXIT verdict is 3 months old and 300 sh still sit. (3) Proposals are research-only: complete the CRWV exit, collar HOOD into late-Oct earnings, and treat TTWO's Nov-19 launch as a defined-risk spread only on weakness to $195–202.